- Two areas in the Atlantic are being monitored for possible tropical development.
- Warm water is abundant, but dry air is a negative factor.
- Emily is the next Atlantic storm name.
Two areas in the Atlantic are being tracked for possible tropical development, and despite widespread warm water, there is a barrier that could keep these disturbances from organizing quickly.
Here’s the latest status on the chance of Atlantic tropical development: The two areas that the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has highlighted in the central and eastern Atlantic are associated with tropical waves. These elongated areas of low pressure can often be the seed for the formation of tropical depressions and storms.
The area to watch that’s closest to Africa will emerge from the continent by early Wednesday. Some slow development of this system is possible beyond that time as it moves northwestward.
The other area over the central Atlantic is producing showers and storms, but only slow development is possible in the coming days.
(MORE: Hurricane Season Forecast Update)
Atlantic waters are warm, but dry air is abundant. Sea-surface temperatures in much of the tropical Atlantic continue to run above average, which is a favorable factor for the formation of tropical storms.
But another factor that’s counteracting the warm water for now is widespread dry air. This dry air is one of the reasons why the Atlantic has been mostly quiet since the final advisory was written for Tropical Storm Don over three weeks ago.
Dry, sinking air disrupts tropical systems by suppressing thunderstorms and strengthening downdrafts of storms that are able to form. That prevents thunderstorms from persisting long enough near a surface low-pressure center in order to keep the storm healthy.
It’s typical to have one or more locations of possible development this time of year. These areas being watched for development are a reminder that we are heading into the heart of the hurricane season. Much of the season’s tropical storm and hurricane activity occurs between mid-August and early October, as the graph below shows.
There’s no reason to be concerned about a threat from these Atlantic systems at this time, but it’s a reminder to stay alert and check back frequently for the latest updates. We’ll have many more disturbances like these to track in the coming weeks from the Atlantic to the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.
Emily will be the name given to the next Atlantic storm.
Chris Dolce has been a senior meteorologist with weather.com for over 10 years after beginning his career with The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.
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